Friday, June 7, 2024 at 6:50pm EDT
Written by The Tower
For a second straight weekend, the Baltimore Orioles (39-22; 18-10 away) and Tampa Bay Rays (31-31; 17-18 home) will lock horns. After dropping two of three in Maryland, the Rays get to host in Tropicana Field this time around. Friday's series opener is scheduled to start at 6:50 p.m. EDT. Who will get a win in this battle?
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Baltimore is Bashing
Even after a pair of losses, the Orioles left Toronto averaging more runs per game (5.1) than every other team. They also had the most homers (95) in the majors. Baltimore is ninth in batting average, 19th in OBP, and first in slugging percentage. Improving upon the third-worst walk percentage would make this lineup lethal. Regardless, they're scoring plenty of runs, aided by 43 stolen bases (12th) and the league's 10th-best strikeout percentage. Let's see how they fare in the second half of this road trip.
The O's have also benefitted from tremendous pitching this season. Most of that has come from the rotation, something that Cole Irvin will try to keep true. He faced the Rays last Sunday, holding them to two runs across 6.1 innings pitched. Irvin brings a 2.84 ERA, 3.66 FIP, and 1.158 WHIP into this outing. Baltimore's bullpen is eighth in ERA and 10th in FIP. Will this weekend be as successful as the last one?
Rays Ready for the Rematch
A three-game winning streak, that started with the Orioles, has Tampa Bay back at .500. Now, it's time to get over the hump, something that'll likely hinge on Aaron Civale's right arm. He held Baltimore to one run over 5.1 innings last Friday. However, Civale's last five starts, including that one, have been Rays losses. He has a 5.37 ERA for the season. Behind him are a group of relievers who are 27th in FIP and 29th in WAR. Let's see if they can pitch well enough to keep the winning streak alive.
Tampa's recent winning ways can be traced to an offense that has scored at least four runs in four consecutive games. That's an improvement for a lineup that's 23rd in runs per game, averaging 4.0. The Rays are 19th in batting average, 15th in OBP, and 26th in slugging percentage. They may have 61 stolen bases (5th), but their stolen-base percentage is 28th among MLB's 30 teams. The Rays are 24th in strikeout percentage and 27th in home runs. Can they beat Baltimore again?
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Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
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It's highly unlikely that the Orioles will lose three games in a row. Especially not in a matchup like this where they have every advantage. Baltimore is home to MLB's highest-scoring offense. The Rays are 23rd in that department.
Even if Aaron Civale holds the Orioles to one run again, the relievers behind him are 29th in WAR, so they can't be trusted against Baltimore's bats. Meanwhile, the Orioles will have Cole Irvin on the hill, and he has a 2.84 ERA for the season. Expect the Orioles to get back on track in a big way. Take them to win by multiple runs.
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles -1.5
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Full-Game Total Pick
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Aaron Civale may have slowed down the Orioles last weekend, but don't expect it to happen again. His 5.37 ERA doesn't mesh well with an Orioles lineup that scores more than any other team. Neither does a Tampa Bay bullpen that has a 4.61 FIP (27th).
On the other side, the Rays showed that they could score multiple runs against Cole Irvin last Sunday. Unlike, Tampa, the Orioles' relievers didn't get a day of rest on Thursday but rather had to fly to Florida from Canada. They probably won't be sharp. Roll with the over in this game.
Prediction: Over
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Written ByAndre Ifill , "The Tower"
Watching, playing, and talking about sports has always been an essential part of my life. I graduated from the University of Connecticut with a degree in Communication, and now, I'm striving to be an essential voice in sports media for decades to come. You'd be hard-pressed to find someone more competitive than me, and that extends into my sports betting predictions as well. We're all here to win, and my goal is to make that happen every single night while letting my personality shine in the process. I am honored to be apart of this team.
