Welcome to the twenty-second edition of the Climate and Health Outlook from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Office of Climate Change and Health Equity (OCCHE). The Climate and Health Outlook is an effort to inform health professionals and the public on how our health may be affected in the coming months by climate events and provide resources to take proactive action. This edition provides forecasts for heat, drought, and wildfire in June 2024 as well as the 2024 hurricane outlook. It also discusses how to protect yourself and others’ health from these climate hazards along with tickborne diseases and conditions, tornadoes, flooding and pollen. Stories on the new UNMC Drought and Health Messaging Framework, an NYC cooling system distribution partnership, and protecting agricultural workers from wildfire smoke exposure are also featured. This webpage includes additional resources and information excluded from the PDF summary, including regional prospective forecasts.
Download the Climate and Health Outlook for June 2024
OCCHE and the HHS Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR) launched the Climate and Health Outlook Portal to accompany this publication series. This tool features interactive maps with county-level heat, wildfire, and drought forecasts for the current month along with county-level data on individual risk factors that may make people more vulnerable to negative health outcomes from these climate hazards. OCCHE plans to update the tool with new features including additional climate-related hazard and risk factor data and welcomes user feedback on how it can be improved—please email us at OCCHE@hhs.gov to let us know what you think.
Image source: https://scenarios.globalchange.gov/regions_nca4
U.S. Seasonal Forecast for Health: June 2024
Regional forecasts for heat, drought, wildfire, and hurricanes:
Alaska: Eastern mainland Alaska is expected to experience above normal temperatures in June, increasing the odds for some high heat days (above 80 degrees Fahrenheit) later in June. Alaska is favored to remain drought-free.
Northwest: Two counties in Idaho and one county in Oregon are expected to have five or more extreme heat days* in June. Drought is favored to persist across parts of Washington and northern Idaho. Drought development is forecasted in eastern Washington, northeastern Oregon, and small portions of western Idaho.
Southwest: Sixteen counties in New Mexico, thirteen counties in Arizona, ten counties in Utah, six counties in Colorado, two counties in California, and one county in Nevada are expected to have five or more extremely heat days in June. Above normal significant wildfire** potential is forecast for much of central and western New Mexico, portions of southeast Arizona, portions of southern Nevada, and southwest Utah in June. Below normal wildland fire potential is forecast for much of California in June. Drought is favored to persist across much of New Mexico and parts of Colorado, Arizona, and small areas of eastern Utah. Drought development is forecasted across much of Arizona, western New Mexico, southern Utah, and southwestern Colorado.
Hawai’i and Pacific Islands: All of the Hawai’ian islands are expected to experience normal temperatures for June; any unforecast extreme heat that does emerge would be more likely in the islands of Kauai and Oahu. The central Pacific is most likely to experience a below-normal hurricane season. Drought persistence and development is forecast across portions of Hawai’i.
Caribbean: Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are likely to experience heat well above normal temperatures related to record warm sea surface temperatures in the surrounding vicinity. Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are favored to remain drought-free.
Northern Great Plains: One county in Montana and one county in Wyoming are expected to have five or more extreme heat days in June. Drought persistence is favored in a large portion of western Montana, eastern Montana, and small portions of Wyoming, southwestern North Dakota, and northwestern South Dakota. Drought development is forecast in western Montana. Drought improvement and removal is favored in southeastern Nebraska.
Southern Great Plains: Sixty counties in Texas, three counties in Oklahoma, and two counties in Kansas are expected to have five or more extreme heat days in June. Drought persistence is forecast in western and southern Texas, western Oklahoma, and western Kansas. Drought development is forecasted in southern Texas. Drought improvement and removal is favored in central Kansas, portions of Oklahoma, and a small area of northern Texas. Above normal significant wildfire potential is forecast for far west Texas.
Midwest: Fewer than five extreme heat days are forecast throughout this region in June. Drought persistence is forecast in small areas of northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and northwestern Michigan.
Southeast: Seven counties in Georgia and one county in South Carolina are expected to have five or more extreme heat days in June. Drought persistence is forecast in southern Florida. Drought improvement and removal is favored in northeastern Arkansas. Above normal significant wildfire potential is forecast for central and south Florida. The Atlantic basin is highly likely to have an above-normal hurricane season.
Northeast: Fewer than five extreme heat days are forecast throughout this region in June. The Northeast is favored to remain drought-free.
* An “extreme heat day” is when the daily maximum temperature is above the 95th percentile value of the historical temperature distribution in that county.
** Smoke from wildfires can impact health hundreds of miles from site of the fire.
Most heat forecasts are derived from the Centers for Disease Control’s (CDC’s) Heat & Health Tracker, but since it does not include heat forecasts for the non-continental U.S., the heat forecast for Alaska is based on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) 30-day outlook, the heat forecast for Hawai’i is based on NOAA’s Hawaiian Outlook, and the heat forecast for the Carribean is based on NOAA’s Central America Multi-Model Ensemble forecast. Heat forecasts for additional Pacific Islands will be incorporated as they become available from NOAA. Drought forecasts are derived from NOAA’s Official Drought Outlook, wildfire forecasts from the National Interagency Coordination Center, and hurricanes from NOAA’s 2024 Hurricane Season Outlook.
You can learn more about climate hazards, the ways they impact health, and resources to protect yourself and your community here:
- Drought
- Extreme Heat
- Hurricane
- Wildfire
- Lyme and Other Tickborne Diseases
- West Nile Virus and Other Mosquito-Borne Diseases
- Pollen
- Spring Flooding
- Winter Weather
- Behavioral Health Stressors
Previous editions of the Climate and Health Outlook are also available.
Thank you to the partners who provide invaluable information, expertise, and data for the Climate and Health Outlook series, including the Administration for Children and Families; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and National Institute for Occupational Safety & Health; Department of Agriculture including but not limited to the Forest Service; Environmental Protection Agency; the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs; National Highway Traffic Safety Administration; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Information, National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center, National Integrated Drought Information System, National Integrated Heat Health Information System, and National Water Center; National Interagency Fire Center; Bureau of Land Management; Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration; United States Geological Survey; the California Air Resources Board; the Oregon Health Authority; the San Mateo County Health Department; the USA National Phenology Network; Atlanta Allergy & Asthma; American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology; the Region 2 Pediatric Environmental Health Specialty Unit; the California Department of Public Health; the Maricopa County Department of Public Health; University of Nebraska Medical Center; and the National Park Service.
